FABLE

Forest, Agriculture, and Biofuels in a Land use model with Environmental services (FABLE)

The allocation of global land resources over the next hundred years has become a pressing question.  We seek to understand the implications of future uncertainty in climate impacts, climate regulation and energy prices on the long-term trajectory of global land use and associated GHG emissions. To that end, we have developed FABLE,  a dynamic global model aimed at analyzing the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food, bioenergy, and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services and greenhouse gas mitigation targets.

STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY IN THE FABLE MODEL

Key features of FABLE include: perfect foresight, dynamic, partial equilibrium, eight sectors / commodities, a vintage representation of the forestry sector, fertilizer-land substitution for intensification, 1st and 2nd generation biofuels, and efficient use of resources. The model is calibrated to GTAP 7 land-use data. Below shows a flow diagram of the FABLE components. 

FABLE has been used to analyze the dynamic impacts of biofuels on global land use and evaluate the social benefits of second generation biofuels in the context of uncertain energy prices, climate regulation and climate impacts. The model  has been extended to incorporate decision making under uncertainty through the development and implementation of new computational tools for dynamic stochastic analysis.

Recent studies include:

• Energy price uncertainty and global land use.

• Confronting the food-energy-environment trilemma.

• Competition for land in the global bioeconomy

• The effect of climate and technological uncertainty in crop yields on the optimal Path of global land use

• Valuing second generation biofuel technology:

  • Results revealed that the global, social value of second generation biofuels is also highly dependent on these same uncertainties. Climate regulation raises the value of second generation biofuels by about fifty percent, while flat energy prices over the coming century virtually eliminate the social value of these alternative fuels.

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People: 

Yongyang Cai | Alla Golub | Thomas Hertel | Ken Judd | Brent Sohngen | Jevgenijis Steinbuks

Recent Publications:

T. W. Hertel, J. Steinbuks, W.E. Tyner . What is the social value of second generation biofuels? Applied Economic Perspectives and Policies, forthcoming, 2015.

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, and Govinda R. Timilsina. "Land-use change and food supply." The Impacts of Biofuels on the Economy, Environment, and Poverty, Springer New York. (2014): 91-102.

Yongyang Cai et al. "The Effect of Climate and Technological Uncertainty in Crop Yields on the Optimal Path of global land use." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7009 (2014).

Hertel, Thomas W. "Confronting climate change: The role of land." United Nations University, July 2013. Research Brief.

Hertel, Thomas W. "Land, environment and climate: Contributing to the global public good." Working Paper 2013-107, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2013.

Hertel, Thomas, Jevgenijs Steinbuks, and Uris Baldos. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy." Agricultural Economics 44, no. s1 (2013): 129-138.

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs. "Energy prices will drive global land use in the 21st century." Environmental Research Web, April 2013. Insight Article.

Hertel, Thomas, Jevgenijs Steinbuks, and Uris Baldos. "Competition for Land in the Global Bioeconomy" (September 10, 2012). RDCEP Working Paper No. 12-12.

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, and Thomas W. Hertel. "The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma" (January 26, 2012). RDCEP Working Paper No. 12-01.