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Center for Robust Decision making on Climate and Energy Policy
Publications (RDCEP-1)
By our team for RDCEP-1.
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Joshua Elliott et al. "Unilateral carbon taxes, border adjustments, and carbon leakage." Theoretical Inquiries in Law 14 (2013): 207-243.
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J. Elliott et al. The global gridded crop model intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for phase 1 (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 8(2):261–277, 2015.
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Elliott, Joshua, Ian Foster, Samuel Kortum, Todd Munson, Fernando Perez Cervantes, and David Weisbach. "Trade and carbon taxes." The American Economic Review (2010): 465-469.
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Joshua Elliott et al. "Propagation of data error and parametric sensitivity in computable general equilibrium models." Computational Economics 39, no. 3 (2012): 219-241.
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Joshua Elliott. Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system. Prepared for the UK–US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, 2015.
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Elliott, Joshua, and Don Fullerton. "Can a unilateral carbon tax reduce emissions elsewhere?." Resource and Energy Economics 36, no. 1 (2014): 6-21.
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Elliott, Joshua, Ian Foster, Kenneth Judd, Elisabeth Moyer, and Todd Munson. "CIM-EARTH: Framework and case study." The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 10, no. 2 (2010).
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James J Elser, Timothy J Elser, Stephen R Carpenter, and William A Brock. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security. PloS one, 9(5):e93998, 2014
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Ian Foster et al. "FACE-IT: Framework to Advance Climate, Economics, and Impact Investigations with Information Technology." In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, vol. 1, p. 1618. 2013.
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K Frieler et al. The relevance of uncertainty in future crop production for mitigation strategy planning. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 5(2):1075–1099, 2014.
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Frigg, Roman, Leonard A. Smith, and David A. Stainforth. "The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09." Philosophy of science 80, no. 5 (2013): 886-897.
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K Frieler, et al. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties. Earth System Dynamics, 6:447–460, 2015.
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Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du, and Leonard A Smith. Laplaces demon and the adventures of his apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1):31–59, 2014.
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Roman Frigg, Leonard A Smith, and David A Stainforth. An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of ukcp09. Synthese, pages 1–30, 2015.
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Fullerton, Don, and Garth Heutel. "Analytical general equilibrium effects of energy policy on output and factor prices." The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 10, no. 2 (2010).
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Michael J Glotter et al. A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses. Climatic Change, 126(3- 4):319–335, 2014.
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Michael Glotter et al. "Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 24 (2014): 8776-8781.
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Michael Glotter et al. Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(24):8776–8781, 2014.
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Michael J. Glotter, et al. Evaluating the sensitivity of agricultural model performance to different climate inputs. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(3):579–594, 2016.
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Hansen, Lars Peter, and Thomas J. Sargent. "Four types of ignorance." Journal of Monetary Economics (2014).
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Lars Peter Hansen. Nobel lecture: Uncertainty outside and inside economic models. Journal of Political Economy, 122(5):945–987, 2014.
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Hansen, Lars Peter, and Jos A. Scheinkman. "Recursive utility in a Markov environment with stochastic growth." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, no. 30 (2012): 11967-11972.
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W Hazeleger, BJJM Van den Hurk, E Min, GJ Van Oldenborgh, AC Petersen, DA Stainforth, E Vasileiadou, and LA Smith. Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5(2):107–113, 2015.
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Thomas W Hertel. The challenges of sustainably feeding a growing planet. Food Security, 7(2):185–198, 2015.
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T. W. Hertel, J. Steinbuks, W.E. Tyner . What is the social value of second generation biofuels? Applied Economic Perspectives and Policies, forthcoming, 2015.
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Hertel, Thomas W. "Land, environment and climate: Contributing to the global public good." Working Paper 2013-107, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2013.
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Hertel, Thomas, Jevgenijs Steinbuks, and Uris Baldos. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy." Agricultural Economics 44, no. s1 (2013): 129-138.
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T.W. Hertel, U.L.C. Baldos, and D. van der Mensbrugghe. Predicting long term food demand, cropland use and prices. forthcoming in the Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2016.
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Thomas W Hertel. Food security under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6(1):10–13, 2016.
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Thomas W Hertel, Jevgenijs Steinbuks, and Wallace E Tyner. What is the social value of second generation biofuels? Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, page ppv027, 2015.
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Thomas W Hertel, et al. Predicting long term food demand, cropland use, and prices. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 8(1), 2016.
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W. K. Huang, et al. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (gev) distributions. 2016.
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Z. B. Irfanoglu, J. P. Sesmero, and A. Golub. Potential of border tax adjustments to deter free riding in international climate agreements. Environmental Research Letters, 10(2):024009, 2015.
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Johnson, Sean D., and Elisabeth J. Moyer. "Feasibility of US renewable portfolio standards under cost caps and case study for Illinois." Energy Policy 49 (2012): 499-514.
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Kaplow, Louis, and David Weisbach. "Discount rates, social judgments, individuals' risk preferences, and uncertainty." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 42, no. 2 (2011): 125-143.
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Louis Kaplow et al. "The social evaluation of intergenerational policies & its application to integrated assessment models of climate change."BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 10, no. 2 (2010).
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Richard Katz et al. "Uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments." Nature Climate Change 3, no. 9 (2013): 769-771.
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Sonia Kefi et al. "Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns." PloS one 9, no. 3 (2014): e92097.
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S. Kefi et al. Early warning signals of ecological transitions: methods for spatial patterns. PloS one, 2014.
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W. B. Leeds, E. J. Moyer, and M. L. Stein. Simulation of future climate under changing temporal covariance structures. Advances in Statistical Climatology Meteorology and Oceanography, 1(1):1–14, 2015
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J. Liu, H. Mooney, V. Hull, S. J Davis, J. Gaskell, T. Hertel, J. Lubchenco, K. C. Seto, P. Gleick, C. Kremen, et al. Systems integration for global sustainability. Science, 2015.
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Thomas S Lontzek, Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L Judd, and Timothy M Lenton. Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy. Nature Clim. Change, 2015
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Lontzek, Thomas S., Yongyang Cai, and Kenneth L. Judd, and Timothy M. Lenton. "Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points calls for strict climate policy." Nature (2015).
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Ana Lopez, Emma B Suckling, and Leonard A Smith. Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support. Climatic change, 122(4):555–566, 2014
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Lopez, Ana, Emma B. Suckling, and Leonard A. Smith. "Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support." Climatic change 122, no. 4 (2014): 555-566.
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Margaret S. Loudermilk et al. "Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Policies on the US Biofuels Market." Instruments for Green Futures Markets (2011): 7.
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Haiyan Meng, Rupa Kommineni, Quan Pham, Robert Gardner, Tanu Malik, and Douglas Thain. An invariant framework for conducting reproducible computational science. Journal of Computational Science, 2015
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Montella, R. et al. (2015) FACE-IT: A science gateway for food security research. Concurrency & Computation: Practice & Experience
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Raffaele Montella, et al. Face-it: A science gateway for food security research. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 27(16):4423–4436, 2015.
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Morin, Andrew, Jennifer M. Urban, Paul D. Adams, Ian Foster, Andrej Sali, David Baker, and Piotr Sliz. "Shining light into black boxes." Science (New York, NY) 336, no. 6078 (2012): 159.
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Elisabeth Moyer et al. "Climate impacts on economic growth as drivers of uncertainty in the social cost of carbon." University of Chicago Coase-Sandor Institute for Law & Economics Paper 652 (2013).
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E J Moyer, M D Woolley, N J Matteson, M J Glotter, and D A Weisbach. Climate impacts on economic growth as drivers of uncertainty in the social cost of carbon. The Journal of Legal Studies, 2014
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Elisabeth J. Moyer et al. "Climate Impacts on Economic Growth as Drivers of Uncertainty in the Social Cost of Carbon. " The Journal of Legal Studies 43, no. 2 (2014).
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Cristoph Müller et al. "GGCMI approaches, insights, & caveats of modeling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale." FAO Trade & Markets Division Expert Consultation, in press, 2014.
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Christoph Müller, et al. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production. Environmental Research Letters, 10(12):125004, 2015.
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Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, and Anders Levermann. Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger. Nature Climate Change, 4(7):540–541, 2014.
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Müller, Christoph, Joshua Elliott et al. "Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production." Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 12 (2015): 125004.
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Müller, Cristoph, Joshua Elliott, and Anders Levermann. "News & views: Fertilizing hidden hunger." Nature Climate Change, accepted, 2014.
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Daiju Narita et al. "Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost− benefit assessment of climate policies." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2015).
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Gerald C. Nelson et al. "Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (2014): 3274-3279.
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Gerald C. Nelson et al. "Assessing uncertainty along the climate-crop-economy modeling chain." Submitted to PNAS ISI-MIP special issue, January 2013.
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Janine Pelikan, Wolfgang Britz, and Thomas W Hertel. Green light for green agricultural policies? An analysis at regional and global scales. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 66(1):1–19, 2015.
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Franziska Piontek et al. "Leaving the world as we know it: Hotspots of global climate change impacts." Submitted to PNAS ISI-MIP special issue, January 2013.
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Franziska Piontek et al. "Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (2014): 3233-3238.
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R J Plevin, J Beckman, A A Golub, J Witcover, and M OHare. Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change. Environmental science & technology, 2015
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Andrew Poppick, et al. Temperatures in transient climates: improved methods for simulations with evolving temporal covariances. arXiv preprint arXiv:1507.00683, 2015.
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Posner, Eric A., and David A. Weisbach. "International paretianism: a defense." Chicago Journal of International Law 13. (2013): 348-358.
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Cynthia Rosenzweig et al. "Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison." PNAS 111. (2014): 3268-3273.
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C. Rosenzweig, J. Antle, and J. Elliott. Assessing impacts of climate change on food security worldwide. EOS, 2016.
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Daniel J. Rowlands et al. "Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble." Nature Geoscience 5, no. 4 (2012): 256-260.
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Sasmita Sahoo, Tess Russo, and Upmanu Lall. Comment on ‘quantifying renewable groundwater stress with grace’ by Alexandra S. Richey et al. Water Resources Research, 2016.
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Sanstad, Alan. "Abating Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electric Power Generation: Model Uncertainty and Regulatory Epistemology." Forthcoming, Journal of Legal Studies.
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Savage, Neil. "Modelling: predictive yield." Nature 501, no. 7468 (2013): S10-S11.
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Leonard A. Smith, Hailiang Du, Emma B. Suckling, and Falk Niehrster. Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014.
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Smith, Leonard A., Hailiang Du, Emma B. Suckling, and Falk Niehrster. "Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2014).
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Stainforth, David A., and Leonard A. Smith. "Policy: Clarify the limits of climate models." Nature 489, no. 7415 (2012): 208-208.
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Steinbuks, Jevgenijs. "Energy prices will drive global land use in the 21st century." Environmental Research Web, April 2013. Insight Article.
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Jevgenijs Steinbuks and Thomas W. Hertel. Confronting the food-energy-environment trilemma: Global land use in the long run. forthcoming in Environmental and Resource Economics, 2015
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Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, & Thomas W. Hertel. "Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century."Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 1 (2013): 014014.
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Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, and Thomas W. Hertel. "Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run." Environmental and Resource Economics (2012): 1-26.
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M. L. Stein. Should annual maximum temperatures follow a gev distribution? Submitted to Biometrika, 2016.
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Suckling, Emma B., and Leonard A. Smith. "An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*." Journal of Climate 26, no. 23 (2013): 9334-9347.
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Shanshan Sun, Scott Collis, Beth Drewniak, David Cook, Michael Stein, and Elizabeth Moyer. Soil moisture dynamics in observation and models in southern great plains. in preparation, 2016.
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Ying Sun and Michael L Stein. A stochastic space-time model for intermittent precipitation occurrences. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2015.
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Xiaohui Tian, Brent Sohngen, John B Kim, Sara Ohrel, and Jefferson Cole. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets. Environmental Research Letters, 11(3):035011, 2016.
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Lenny GJ van Bussel, et al. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 220:101–115, 2016.
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Weisbach, David A. "Designing Subsidies for Low Carbon Energy." Journal of Environmental and Sustainablility Law 20 (2013): 1.
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David A Weisbach. Distributionally weighted cost–benefit analysis: Welfare economics meets organizational design. Journal of Legal Analysis, 2014.
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Weisbach David A. "Carbon taxation in the EU: expanding the EU carbon price." Journal of Environmental Law 24. (2012): 183-206.
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Weisbach David A. "Negligence, strict liability, and responsibility for climate change." Iowa Law Review 97. (2012): 521-565.
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J. Bao, D. McInerney, and M. L. Stein. A spatial dependent model for climate emulation. Revision submitted to Environmetrics., 2016.
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Evan W Anderson et al. Robust bayesian portfolio choices. Review of Financial Studies, 29(5):1330–1375, 2016.
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Keith Beven et al. "On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable)." Hydrological Processes 26, no. 12 (2012): 1905-1908.
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Jaroslav Borovicka, Lars Peter Hansen, and Jose A Scheinkman. Shock elasticities and impulse responses. Mathematics and Financial Economics, 8(4):333–354, 2014.
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Brock, William, Gustav Engstrom, and Anastasios Xepapadeas. "Spatial climate-economic models in the design of optimal climate policies across locations." European Economic Review 69 (2014): 78-103.
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William Brock et al. Spatial climate-economic models in the design of optimal climate policies across locations. European Economic Review, 69:78–103, 2014
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William Brock and Steven Durlauf. A sturdy policy evaluation. forthcoming in Journal of Law and Economics, 2015.
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William A. Brock et al. "Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37, no. 12 (2013): 2371-2396.
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Brock, William A., Gustav Engstrom, and Anastasios Xepapadeas. "Energy balance climate models and the spatial structure of optimal mitigation policies." European Economic Review (2013).
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William A Brock et al. Optimal control in space and time and the management of environmental resources. Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ., 6(1):33–68, 2014.
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Brock, William A., Anastasios Xepapadeas, and A. N. Yannacopoulos. "Optimal Control in Space and Time and the Management of Environmental Resources." Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ. 6, no. 1 (2014): 33-68.
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William A Brock, Anastasios Xepapadeas, and Athanasios N Yannacopoulos. Spatial externalities and agglomeration in a competitive industry. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 42:143–174, 2014.
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William A Brock, Anastasios Xepapadeas, and Athanasios N Yannacopoulos. Optimal agglomerations in dynamic economics. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 53:1–15, 2014
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William A Brock and Anastasios Xepapadeas. Modeling coupled climate, ecosystems, and economic systems. Ecosystems, and Economic Systems (March 5, 2015), 2015.
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William A Brock, Anastasios Xepapadeas, and Athanasios N Yannacopoulos. Robust control and hot spots in spatiotemporal economic systems. Dynamic Games and Applications, 4(3):257–289, 2014.
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Brock, William A., Anastasios Xepapadeas, and A. N. Yannacopoulos. "Robust control and hot spots in spatiotemporal economic systems." Dynamic Games and Applications, (2014): 1-33.
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William A. Brock et al. "Spatial externalities and agglomeration in a competitive industry." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 42 (2014): 143-174.
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Yongyang Cai and Alan H Sanstad. Model uncertainty and energy technology policy: The example of induced technical change. Computers & Operations Research, 66:362–373, 2016
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Cai, Yongyang, and Kenneth L. Judd. "Dynamic programming with Hermite approximation. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research," 81:245–267, 2015.
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Cai, Yongyang, Kenneth L. Judd, and Thomas S. Lontzek. Continuous-time methods for integrated assessment models. No. w18365. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.
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Y. Cai, et al. The effect of uncertainty in crop yields on the optimal path of global land use. R&R in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016.
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Yongyang Cai et al. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(15):4606–4611, 2015.
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Cai, Yongyang, Kenneth L. Judd, and Thomas S. Lontzek. "Open science is necessary." Nature Climate Change 2, no. 5 (2012): 299-299.
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Yongyang Cai and Kenneth L Judd. Dynamic programming with hermite approximation. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, pages 1–23, 2015.
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Y. Cai, K.L. Judd, and J. Steinbuks. A nonlinear certainty equivalent approximation method for dynamic stochastic problems. forthcoming in Quantitative Economics, 2016
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Cai, Yongyang, Kenneth L. Judd, and Thomas S. Lontzek. "The social cost of stochastic and irreversible climate change." No. w18704. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013.
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Cai, Yongyang, and Kenneth L. Judd. "Dynamic programming with shape-preserving rational spline Hermite interpolation." Economics Letters 117, no. 1 (2012): 161-164.
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Cai, Yongyang, and Kenneth L. Judd. "Shape-preserving dynamic programming." Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 77.3 (2013): 407-421.
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Cai, Yongyang, Kenneth L. Judd, Greg Thain, and Stephen J. Wright. "Solving dynamic programming problems on a computational grid." Computational Economics. 2014.
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Stephen R Carpenter, et al. Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(46):14384–14389, 2015.
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Stephen R Carpenter, William A Brock, Jonathan J Cole, and Michael L Pace. A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series. Oikos, 123(3):290–297, 2014.
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Carpenter, Stephen R., William A. Brock, Jonathan J. Cole, and Michael L. Pace. "A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series." Oikos 123, no. 3 (2014): 290-297.
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Stefano Castruccio et al. "Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*." Journal of Climate 27, no. 5 (2014): 1829-1844.
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Castruccio, Stefano, and Michael L. Stein. "Global space-time models for climate ensembles." The Annals of Applied Statistics 7, no. 3 (2013): 1593-1611.
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Won Chang, et al. Changes in spatio- temporal precipitation patterns in changing climate conditions. arXiv preprint arXiv:1601.01147, 2016.
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Choi, Sou-Cheng Terrya. "A Complementarity Approach to Solving Computable General Equilibrium Models." Computational Economics (2014): 1-19.
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Delphine Deryng, et al. Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising co2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change, 2016.
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Hailiang Du and Leonard A Smith. Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part i: The perfect model scenario. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71(2):469–482, 2014.
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Du, Hailiang, and Leonard A. Smith. "Parameter estimation through ignorance." Physical Review E 86, no. 1 (2012): 016213.
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Hailiang Du and Leonard A. Smith. Beyond proper score: The importance of being local. in preparation for Annals of Statistics, 2016
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Joshua Elliott et al. "Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change." PNAS 111, no. 9 (2014): 3239-3244.
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Joshua Elliott et al. The parallel system for integrating impact models and sectors (psims). Environmental Modelling & Software, 62:509–516, 2014.
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Joshua Elliott and Christoph Muller. The agmip gridded crop modeling initiative (aggrid) and the global gridded crop model intercomparison (ggcmi). 2015
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Joshua Elliott et al. "A spatial modeling framework to evaluate domestic biofuel-induced potential land use changes and emissions." Environmental science & technology 48, no. 4 (2014): 2488-2496.
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RDCEP
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Climate Statistics
Impacts of Global Change
Economics and Robustness
Integrated Assessment Models
Policy Analysis
Energy Modeling